India and Pakistan

President Bush’s foreign policy resembles a battle with a swamp fire. As one blaze is controlled, another erupts elsewhere, and all efforts go to attack the new conflagration. Currently Bush is being jostled between the potential disasters in the Middle East and India/Pakistan, with periodic threatening bursts erupting from the quagmire of Afghanistan and potential for trouble developing in Columbia. Into this mix, Bush wishes to throw a torch into Iraq, amid dissent from most of the world, including his own generals. Moreover, Bush’s doctrine of pre-emptive strikes against perceived terrorist threats, recently reiterated forcefully at his commencement speech at West Point, has already served to legitimize aggressive military solutions in both the Middle East and South Asia.

The recent increase in hostilities between India and Pakistan over the control of Kashmir has brought the world seemingly to the brink of a potential nuclear clash between these two countries. Thousands of foreign residents are fleeing in panic. Astrologically, the increase in belligerence of the past few weeks may be seen in the transit of Mars over the Indian and Pakistani Uranus, Node, and Mars conjunction, as well as the strong aspects of transiting Mars to Prime Minister of India Vajpayee’s Sun, Jupiter, and Mars. This should pass after June 3, 2002. There are, however, some dangerous patches ahead.

During the first half of August 2002, the transiting Sun/ Mars conjunction (15 –20 Leo) may well trigger significant violent event(s) that again increase hostilities between the two countries for a brief period. I do not foresee a nuclear exchange, but I do expect a great deal of tension and belligerence to occur. The Sun/Mars conjunction falls exactly on Pakistani President Musharraf’s Sun (17Leo46) and very close to the India/Pakistani Sun (21Leo07). Moreover, it will also trigger a tertiary progressed Sun conjunct tertiary progressed Mars (19 Taurus) in Prime Minister Vajpayee’s swearing-in chart (3/19/98, New Delhi). This latter aspect continues until October 2002, suggesting that Vajpayee will not hesitate to stand firmly and aggressively on India’s behalf. It also implies a continuation of some level of tension and, perhaps, military activity through the early fall.

Also of great concern are two tertiary progressions to the two countries’ Mars (00Cancer35) over the next year and a half that, when activated, could once again cause hostilities to spike. Beginning around July 2002, tertiary progressed Uranus moves into orb of natal Mars, peaking around 12/1/03. This is a very serious progression, implying aggression (Mars) coupled with sudden devastating impact (Uranus). It will be especially strong during the last six months of 2003 and could easily indicate terrorist activity or powerful military events when activated. Tertiary progressed Jupiter (00Aquarius) will be quincunx the same natal Mars (00Cancer35) from January 2003 through January 2004, further intensifying the powerful and dangerous Mars/ Uranus aspect.

From early August through early October2003, several very significant triggers to the Mars/Jupiter/Uranus progressions come with the transits of Uranus (00 Pisces), Mars (00 Pisces), and Jupiter (00Virgo). In August the tertiary progressed Sun reaches natal Uranus (25 Gemini) as well. Thus, this period could spark alarming events that add to the ever-increasing danger of war as we move through the latter half of 2003.

Of greatest concern is the period from mid-December ’03 through mid-February ’04. It is at this point that the tertiary progressed Sun (00 Cancer) in the Indian and Pakistani charts joins the tertiary progressed Uranus (slightly past exact) in its conjunction with natal Mars (00Cancer35), still receiving a quincunx from tertiary Jupiter (00Aquarius35), and triggered by transiting Uranus (00 Pisces). This is a very inflammatory mix. Further adding to the likelihood of war at this time is the Indian/Pakistani converse progressed Mars (21 Taurus) square the natal Sun (21 Leo), which will be triggered by transiting Pluto (21 Sagittarius) from December ’03 through early June ’04.

Thus, although the months from August to October 2003 are likely to bring a tremendous and critical increase in hostilities, the months from November 2003 through February 2004 bring a grave danger that these hostilities will move into a full-scale war. One can only hope that during the intervening period, between the August 2002 increase in tension and the growing struggle of late 2003, the international community may diplomatically find a way to further insulate South Asia from its more destructive impulses and prevent the possibility of a nuclear holocaust.